2019: A Year Of Trepidation And Growing Uncertainties

GLOBAL TRENDS

• The US economy could slip into recession
• Second longest expansion could come to an abrupt end
• The democrats in the house investigate deutsche bank

– The Russian connection

• The US and global stock market reverse into bear markets
• Brexit goes hay wire and a possible second referendum
• Macron succumbs to socialist pressure and its effects on Francophone Africa
• There are 9 French specking countries in west Africa
• The open skies agreement impacts Nigerian countries
• Total banking assets in the world will rise by 6% to $150trn
• Banks will jostle and partner with fintech companies
• India and Nigeria payments market will attract particular attention
• Fintech regulation will tighten in most countries
• Telco operators profit will tighten and come under consumer pressure
• Wechat & whatsapp will cannibalize voice revenue
• Intellectual property theft and the China/US trade wars will escalate
• Venezuela’s decline from oil powerhouse to poor house could happen to Nigeria
• Oil accounts for 95% of Venezuela’s export revenue
• Shale production in the US up 23 per cent in 2017
• Venezuela has 37 per cent of global oil reserves
• China to increase lending to SSA

HIGHER GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE SPEND-$20TRILLION IN INVESTMENT

• Thus accounts for 25 per cent of global GDP
• Nigeria plans to spend $6.22billion on infrastructure = 1.66 per cent of GDP
• China to spend $5.9trn = 41 per cent of GDP

Impact

• Economic growth in Nigeria will be sluggish
• As investment is key determinant of accelerated growth
• Level of gross fixed investment is $64.8billion
• Hence the need to boost investment components are too shallow

GLOBAL HEALTH CARE SPEND PER HEAD EXCEEDS $1,500

Keep an eye on Nigeria & Oman

• Nigeria’s current healthcare spend per head = $80, four per cent of GDP
• Income per capita = $2,284
• An average Nigerian spends $80 out of $5,680 on healthcare

Impact

• Life expectancy to remain low
• Has the 4th lowest life expectancy of 53.7

GLOBAL RISKS IN 2019 – PROBABILITY & IMPACT

• Rising protectionism: US china risk will blowup into a full blown trade war

Reversal of financial flows: leading to a full blown financial crisis

• BREXIT: Perils in Europe due to BREXIT and itsfallout
• Basel 3: The enactment of Basel 3 couldlead to M&As among some global banks