GLOBAL TRENDS
- The US economy could slip into recession
- Second longest expansion could come to an abrupt end
- The democrats in the house investigate deutsche bank
– The Russian connection
- The US and global stock market reverse into bear markets
- Brexit goes hay wire and a possible second referendum
- Macron succumbs to socialist pressure and its effects on Francophone Africa
- There are 9 French specking countries in west Africa
- The open skies agreement impacts Nigerian countries
- Total banking assets in the world will rise by 6% to $150trn
- Banks will jostle and partner with fintech companies
- India and Nigeria payments market will attract particular attention
- Fintech regulation will tighten in most countries
- Telco operators profit will tighten and come under consumer pressure
- Wechat & whatsapp will cannibalize voice revenue
- Intellectual property theft and the China/US trade wars will escalate
- Venezuela’s decline from oil powerhouse to poor house could happen to Nigeria
- Oil accounts for 95% of Venezuela’s export revenue
- Shale production in the US up 23 per cent in 2017
- Venezuela has 37 per cent of global oil reserves
- China to increase lending to SSA
HIGHER GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE SPEND-$20TRILLION IN INVESTMENT
- Thus accounts for 25 per cent of global GDP
- Nigeria plans to spend $6.22billion on infrastructure = 1.66 per cent of GDP
- China to spend $5.9trn = 41 per cent of GDP
Impact
- Economic growth in Nigeria will be sluggish
- As investment is key determinant of accelerated growth
- Level of gross fixed investment is $64.8billion
- Hence the need to boost investment components are too shallow
GLOBAL HEALTH CARE SPEND PER HEAD EXCEEDS $1,500
Keep an eye on Nigeria & Oman
- Nigeria’s current healthcare spend per head = $80, four per cent of GDP
- Income per capita = $2,284
- An average Nigerian spends $80 out of $5,680 on healthcare
Impact
- Life expectancy to remain low
- Has the 4th lowest life expectancy of 53.7
GLOBAL RISKS IN 2019 – PROBABILITY & IMPACT
- Rising protectionism: US china risk will blowup into a full blown trade war
Reversal of financial flows: leading to a full blown financial crisis
- BREXIT: Perils in Europe due to BREXIT and itsfallout
- Basel 3: The enactment of Basel 3 couldlead to M&As among some global banks
