2019: A Year Of Trepidation And Growing Uncertainties – Eandel

2019: A Year Of Trepidation And Growing Uncertainties

Will Crude Oil Market Receive the Required Stimulus?
April 29, 2019
UK Seals Business Deals in Nigeria & Ghana
May 4, 2019

GLOBAL TRENDS

  • The US economy could slip into recession
  • Second longest expansion could come to an abrupt end
  • The democrats in the house investigate deutsche bank

– The Russian connection

  • The US and global stock market reverse into bear markets
  • Brexit goes hay wire and a possible second referendum
  • Macron succumbs to socialist pressure and its effects on Francophone Africa
  • There are 9 French specking countries in west Africa
  • The open skies agreement impacts Nigerian countries
  • Total banking assets in the world will rise by 6% to $150trn
  • Banks will jostle and partner with fintech companies
  • India and Nigeria payments market will attract particular attention
  • Fintech regulation will tighten in most countries
  • Telco operators profit will tighten and come under consumer pressure
  • Wechat & whatsapp will cannibalize voice revenue
  • Intellectual property theft and the China/US trade wars will escalate
  • Venezuela’s decline from oil powerhouse to poor house could happen to Nigeria
  • Oil accounts for 95% of Venezuela’s export revenue
  • Shale production in the US up 23 per cent in 2017
  • Venezuela has 37 per cent of global oil reserves
  • China to increase lending to SSA

 

HIGHER GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE SPEND-$20TRILLION IN INVESTMENT

  • Thus accounts for 25 per cent of global GDP
  • Nigeria plans to spend $6.22billion on infrastructure = 1.66 per cent of GDP
  • China to spend $5.9trn = 41 per cent of GDP

Impact

  • Economic growth in Nigeria will be sluggish
  • As investment is key determinant of accelerated growth
  • Level of gross fixed investment is $64.8billion
  • Hence the need to boost investment components are too shallow

 

GLOBAL HEALTH CARE SPEND PER HEAD EXCEEDS $1,500

Keep an eye on Nigeria & Oman

  • Nigeria’s current healthcare spend per head = $80, four per cent of GDP
  • Income per capita = $2,284
  • An average Nigerian spends $80 out of $5,680 on healthcare

Impact

  • Life expectancy to remain low
  • Has the 4th lowest life expectancy of 53.7

GLOBAL RISKS IN 2019 – PROBABILITY & IMPACT

  • Rising protectionism: US china risk will blowup into a full blown trade war

Reversal of financial flows: leading to a full blown financial crisis

  • BREXIT: Perils in Europe due to BREXIT and itsfallout
  • Basel 3: The enactment of Basel 3 couldlead to M&As among some global banks

 

 

 

 

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