Brent Drops below $70 As Israel-Iran Ceasefire Holds
This week’s newsletter offers a concise overview of the key figures and data in the energy markets for the week.
The table and the charts below show some key market movers early this week, followed by the latest analysis of the top news events in the global energy complex over the past few days.
– US electricity demand is expected to surge to levels not seen since the summer of 2013, as regional operator PJM has warned that consumption could potentially reach 158 GW, with temperatures nearing 100°F.
– Power demand in the US averaged 36.5 BCf/d over the weekend before skyrocketing to 47.5 BCf/d on 24-25 June, greatly slowing down the pace of US natural gas storage injections this week.
– Henry Hub gas futures in the US showed little reaction to the unfolding Israel-Iran conflict and moved within a relatively narrow $3.5-4.0 per mmBtu range throughout June, with the September 2025 contract remaining the most traded one.
Higher temperatures have capped US feed gas demand at around 15 BCf/d, despite the return of Sabine Pass LNG from a month-long maintenance period, just as global LNG prices shed all geopolitical risk premium and are back to trading at $13 per mmBtu.
Market Movers
– US LNG developer Glenfarne signed a non-binding agreement with Thailand’s national oil company PTT for ‘strategic participation’ in the 20 mtpa Alaska LNG project, preliminarily agreeing on supplying two mtpa LNG for 20 years.
– Italy’s oil major ENI (BIT: ENI) is seeking to spin off its Italian refining business into a separate entity as part of its ‘satellite’ strategy to attract more investment, including its recently built bio-refineries.
Investment Financial products
– UK energy giant BP (NYSE: BP) has suspended the development of its blue hydrogen project at its Whiting refinery in Indiana, as the Department of Energy disbursed only US$22m from a Biden-era US$1bn hydrogen grant.
– Canada’s midstream giant Keyera (TSE: KEY) has agreed to purchase the entire Canadian NGL business of Plains All American Pipeline’s (NASDAQ: PAA) for $5.15 billion plus select US assets.
Tuesday, June 24, 2025
Oil prices reacted to the Israel-Iran ceasefire more quickly than they did at the onset of the conflict, falling by $ 6.50 per barrel on Monday, with ICE Brent continuing the drop below $70 per barrel. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz seems to be off the immediate agenda, provided the two belligerent sides stick to the truce, putting a largely unexpected end to the most volatile trading period since the summer of 2022.
US LNG Capacity To Boom under Trump. US LNG major Cheniere Energy (NYSE: LNG) took a final investment decision in the expansion of the Corpus Christi LNG project, boosting the site’s capacity by two additional trains with a capacity of 6 mtpa to a total of 60 mtpa, all the while debottlenecking five mtpa of future liquefaction.
Investment Financial products
India Imports Record Volumes of Oil. India’s crude imports reached an all-time high of 23.32 million metric tonnes in May, up 10% from the previous month, with Russia accounting for almost 40% of total imports and Iraq taking a 22% share, while Saudi Arabian inflows continue to decline.
Iraq’s Upstream Gets Caught in the Crosshairs. European oil companies operating in Iraq have begun evacuating their staff from the country’s oil fields, with BP (NYSE: BP), ENI (BIT: ENI), and TotalEnergies (NYSE: TTE) all stating that these measures will not impact production.
Central Europe Blocks EU’s Energy Sanctions. The European Union struggles to adopt its 18th sanctions package against Russia after member countries Hungary and Slovakia vetoed the phase out of Russian energy imports, but Brussels is seeking ways to sidestep their opposition.
Venezuela’s Refining Starts to Fall Apart. Venezuela’s state oil firm PDVSA was forced to halt production at its 310,000 b/d Cardon refinery after a power blackout, losing some 50,000 b/d of refined products output, less than a month after the plant restarted its fluid catalytic cracking unit.
Middle East Insurance Rates Balloon. US attacks on Iranian nuclear sites and Tehran’s attack on Qatar have pushed insurance rates across the Middle East to 0.5% of cargo value, a fourfold increase from a month ago, whilst VLCC freight rates have also doubled week-on-week to $60,000 per day.
‘King Coal’ Set to Return in Style. As both European and Asian LNG prices moved past $14 per mmBtu, thermal coal prices rose to multi-month highs, with Europe’s API 2 futures contract seeing the highest daily traded volume this year on Monday, in anticipation of firm summer demand.
Defying Producers, Congo Extends Cobalt Export Ban. Cobalt prices rose to a three-month high after the Democratic Republic of Congo extended its ban on cobalt exports for another three months, triggering the ire of miners Glencore and CMOC, as Wuxi futures soared above $35 per kilogram.
Canada Is Finally a LNG Producer. The US$40bn LNG Canada project developed by Shell (LON: SHEL) produced its first liquefied natural gas for export, set to become the first cargo in Canada’s history, with LNG carrier Gaslog Glasgow expected to arrive at Kitimat on 29 June for loading.
China’s Solar Ambition Knows No Bounds. Under pressure from Trump’s tariffs, China has been boosting domestic solar installations as last month’s tally of new solar capacity soared to 93 GW, a new all-time high and a 30% increase over the previous record, also set by China last December.
Niger Nationalizes French Uranium Mine. Niger’s military junta seized control of the Somair uranium mine, which is operated by France’s nuclear giant Orano. This move came after Niamey accused the French side of extracting more uranium than the allowed 63.4% stake, thereby violating the shareholder agreement.
LNG Freight Soars on Tanker Tightness. As Asia’s benchmark JKM liquefied natural gas prices rose to $14.8 per mmBtu earlier this week, only to plunge back to $13.2 per mmBtu after the ceasefire announcement, LNG freight rose to an 8-month high, with the Atlantic daily rate climbing to $51,750 per day.
China Doubles 2025 Naphtha Quota. China has issued its second batch of import quotas for 2025, almost doubling last year’s allocations to 24 million tonnes, as Beijing seeks to ensure an adequate supply of petrochemical feedstock after the Trump administration halted ethane exports to China.
