Uganda’s $20bn Oil Dreams Face Heavy Price of Regional Militarisation
Uganda is tightening military deployments across its borders in a bid to secure nearly $20 billion worth of oil infrastructure and key trade corridors. The Uganda People’s Defence Forces (UPDF) is now preparing to send troops to South Sudan under Operation Mlinzi wa Kimya, a mission framed as both a stabilisation drive and a safeguard for Uganda’s economic lifelines.
Yet the expanding defence belt is proving costly. Uganda’s foreign military operations—from Somalia to the Democratic Republic of Congo and South Sudan—are draining public finances, with rising defence allocations competing against social services. Analysts warn that as troops return home in body bags, the human cost of these ventures is fuelling public unease.
Economists note that securing trade and energy corridors is vital for Uganda’s ambition to become an East African oil hub. However, critics argue that the reliance on military muscle over diplomacy risks inflaming regional instability rather than reducing it. Business leaders quietly express concern over long-term investor confidence if the region continues to be militarised.
As Kampala doubles down on its defence strategy, the central question remains, can the promise of oil prosperity and regional influence justify the political, economic and human costs of sustaining a military shield around trade and energy lifelines? The answer will shape not only Uganda’s future, but also the stability of the wider Great Lakes and East African region.
