Over the past 15 years, two neighbouring countries with extremely intertwined histories have taken sharply different economic paths. Zimbabwe, long cited as a cautionary tale of economic collapse, has recorded far faster growth in recent times than South Africa, the continent’s most industrialized economy, whose output has barely moved in real terms.
Measured in US dollars, Zimbabwe’s economy has more than tripled since 2010, growing from about $12 billion to over $41 billion. South Africa’s economy by contrast, has slipped slightly over the same period, shrinking from roughly $417 billion to about $401 billion. The comparison is striking, even allowing for the vastly different starting points.
This growth has not erased memories of hardship for many Zimbabwean families though. The scars of hyperinflation, food shortages and mass emigration remain vivid. Parents who once queued for bread with wheelbarrows of near-worthless cash now cautiously acknowledge modest improvements in daily life, especially in informal trade, small-scale mining and agriculture. The recovery has been uneven and fragile, but it has changed the national conversation from survival alone to cautious rebuilding.
Zimbabwe’s turnaround comes after one of the most severe economic collapses in modern history. The fast-track land reform programme of the early 2000s, combined with costly military involvement in the Democratic Republic of Congo and years of policy uncertainty, hollowed out state finances. Inflation peaked at an estimated 231 million percent in 2008, wiping out savings and trust in public institutions. International sanctions and isolation compounded the crisis.
Yet, from this low base, the economy has expanded steadily over the past decade and a half. Analysts point to dollarization, the elasticity of informal markets, remittances from the diaspora and renewed activity in mining and agriculture as key drivers. SMEs and small family businesses that community-based, have filled gaps left by the state, creating a grassroots form of growth that rarely shows up neatly in official statistics, but sustains millions of households.
South Africa’s story on the other hand is different, and for many citizens, there is increasing frustration. As Africa’s largest and most diversified economy, it entered the 2010s with strong institutions, unfathomable capital markets and global credibility. Still, growth stalled. Corruption scandals, chronic electricity shortages, failing rail, crime and negative port systems; and rising regulatory complexity steadily eroded investors’ confidence.
President Cyril Ramaphosa and the African National Congress (ANC) frequently highlight that the economy has tripled in size since the end of apartheid in 1994, and that employment has more than doubled, from around 8 million to over 16.7 million people. These gains are real and historically significant. But they coexist with a harsher reality; unemployment has surged because growth has not kept pace with population increases and new entrants to the labour market.
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